Data-driven Player of the Month: Victor Boniface leads Leverkusen to Germany's summit

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Data-driven Player of the Month: Victor Boniface leads Leverkusen to Germany's summit

Boniface has quickly become the leader of Leverkusen's attack
Boniface has quickly become the leader of Leverkusen's attackProfimedia
A month ago few knew him, now all the defenders in Germany are afraid of him. Nigerian striker Victor Boniface (22) has taken off like a comet in a Bayer Leverkusen jersey this season.

In the last 14 months, Boniface has managed a transfer from Norwegian Bodo/Glimt, a successful engagement at Belgian side Royale Union SG and a move to the Bundesliga, where he has scored six goals and added two assists as a player for current league leaders Leverkusen

In September, he simply shone and is rightfully named Flashscore's data-driven player of the month, as selected by analysts from the Czech company 11Hacks.

Boniface has been a key element of Leverkusen's offence so far. Coach Xabi Alonso's team have scored 20 goals in their opening six games, the same number as Bayern Munich. Their offensive strength is further confirmed by the expected goals (xG) metric, which tracks the quality and volume of scoring opportunities created.

According to this, Leverkusen maintains an average of 2.08 expected goals per game, the third-best in the league behind Bayern (2.24) and also Freiburg (2.11) - whose players, however, often fail to finish.

Of Leverkusen's total expected goals, Boniface's chances account for a staggering 47%.

Only Jonas Wind (Wolfsburg), Omar Marmoush (Frankfurt) and Lois Openda (Leipzig) are currently better, accounting for 49% of their teams' total xG.

Without being a direct comparison, Boniface creates an intensity on the pitch with his movement that, for example, Liverpool's Darwin Nunez also produces - chaos in a good way, you could say.

The burly Nigerian striker averages 6.2 shots per game - it takes just over three attempts on average to rank among the top 10% of number nines in the world's best leagues.

Boniface's shot map in the Bundesliga this season
Boniface's shot map in the Bundesliga this season11Hacks, Flashscore

His shooting quality is also well illustrated by a comparison of the best players in the current Bundesliga season, in which the other strikers keep a respectable distance from Boniface. The trio of Serhou Guirassy, Harry Kane and Tomas Cvancara are at around 3.5 shots per game.

By a landslide, the Nigerian also dominates the number of touches with the ball inside the opponent's penalty area. He averages 10 per game, two more than the aforementioned Guirassy. Kane is on six and Openda is on five.

Not surprisingly, a similar gap between Boniface and the others also exists in the number of shots he creates for himself, that is, without a prior assist from a teammate.

After six rounds, it's almost certain that his numbers won't be as dominant in the long run but they paint a good picture of his current state of form and how quickly he's been able to adapt to the new competition.

Now for the most important thing - how many quality chances is he creating and how good is his movement in the box actually? 

The answer is clear. Only Wind from Wolfsburg has created more quality chances so far but the difference between the two players is not large. While the 24-year-old Dane is at 0.80 expected goals per game, Boniface has registered 0.76 so far. What's more, with an overall xG of 5.34, he has scored six goals.

Bundesliga 2023/24. X-axis: Expected goals (excluding penalties) per game; Y-axis: Average number of shots per game
Bundesliga 2023/24. X-axis: Expected goals (excluding penalties) per game; Y-axis: Average number of shots per game11Hacks, Flashscore

Moreover, given his high volume of shots and activity in the final third, his goal contribution seems sustainable over the long term. Although Guirassy tops the Bundesliga scorers table currently with 10 goals, it must be remembered that he crossed the double-digit threshold with only four expected goals and his 45% converted shots is not a sustainable frequency.

Boniface is among the top scorers despite converting only 16% of his attempts, a rather average number.

Leverkusen hit the jackpot

The young forward was not among the best finishers at his previous clubs. In Belgium, he scored nine times out of 11 expected goals, while in Norway he notched 15 xG and 13 of his shots actually found the net. A relatively high number of attempts from angles or outside the penalty area, together with unconverted chances, will very likely be something he cannot avoid for the rest of his career.

For example, in the recent league match against Bayern, he worked tirelessly to finish at every opportunity, but in the end, he did not convert a single one of the eight shots. Having said that, he is still only 22 years old and going through a very turbulent period in his career, so it is possible that he will gradually gain more composure.

If not, it's not a big deal as he also regularly gets chances from the most dangerous central spaces inside the box, which is an absolutely essential skill for a centre-forward.

In both Norway and Belgium, he showed that he had a very good game with his back to goal, which his teammates often exploited. Leverkusen have been doing this a little less so far, and Boniface's number of ball possessions in these situations is below average.

As far as creativity is concerned, he showed last season that he can drop between the lines and has a good feel for creating chances from the midfield, especially from the central area near the goal.

He doesn't have that many opportunities to generate assists at Leverkusen as he is among the furthest forward strikers -even so, he has already managed to record two. On top of this, his results in the metric of expected assists are above average within the league.

Trading in the market for top strikers is extremely difficult at the moment for a number of reasons but so far Leverkusen seem to have been very smart during the transfer window and are reaping the rewards of their €21 million investment right from the start.

Even though Boniface still looks like a diamond in the rough in some respects, he has brilliantly fitted into his offensively-minded team and will make his presence known many more times this season.