Joao Fonseca had recently been overshadowed in the race for the season’s top emerging player by Learner Tien, who impressed during the Asian swing. However, Fonseca has responded in style with a superb run to the final in Basel on his tournament debut, earning wins over defending champion Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, the talented Denis Shapovalov, and the in-form Jaume Munar.
The Brazilian endured several months of struggle after a sensational start to the year that saw him make headline-grabbing results and quickly become a household name on the main tour. After a long dry spell, he has once again produced a breakthrough performance. With this run, he becomes the fourth-youngest finalist in the history of ATP 500 tournaments and also the fourth-youngest finalist ever at the ATP Basel event.
Fonseca had never previously reached even a quarterfinal at a regular indoor ATP event, yet he now finds himself in the final of an ATP 500 tournament. With this run, he becomes the first Brazilian to reach a final above the ATP 250 level since Gustavo Kuerten back in 2003. Thanks to this unexpected breakthrough on indoor hard courts, the teenager has secured a new career-high ranking and could break into the world’s top 30 if he goes on to win the title.
Since losing to compatriot Gustavo Heide in his first-ever professional final at the Asuncion Challenger last year, Fonseca has reached five finals across all levels and won them all. His notable victories include a win over Learner Tien at the ATP Next Gen Finals last December and another against Francisco Cerundolo at the ATP Buenos Aires earlier this year.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina can be considered one of the unluckiest players on tour, having endured numerous tough, heartbreaking losses and several injury setbacks, including two retirements at the US Open swing just weeks ago. However, things have finally gone his way in Basel this week, as he edged through two tight early-round battles and then benefited from two retirement wins, first against Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals and later against Ugo Humbert in the semifinals.
Davidovich Fokina’s camp might have mixed feelings about him reaching another final. While it’s encouraging to see him regularly contend for his maiden ATP title, the finals themselves have often brought disappointment as he hasn’t just lost them, but has struggled under pressure, turning what should be a moment of excitement into a frustrating and draining experience.
He is 0-4 in tour-level championship matches so far in his young career, with three of those defeats coming in 2025, twice after leading by a set against Miomir Kecmanovic in Delray Beach and Alex de Minaur in Washington. Both those finals clearly exposed his shortcomings in crunch situations, as he held a 5-2 lead in the deciding set on both occasions but failed to close the match out.
That said, reaching another final is never a bad thing, as it further strengthens and adds to what has already been a highly successful season for him. This result will also propel him into the world’s top 15 in the ATP rankings for the first time in his career next week.
Head-to-head: Joao Fonseca leads 1-0 (6-7, 5-4, retired at Cincinnati Masters 2025). Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is the more experienced and higher-ranked player, and he is at least equally capable of winning this clash. However, his well-documented struggles in high-stakes situations make it difficult to rely on him in such moments until he proves otherwise by capturing a title.
For context, he is 3-10 in career title matches across all tournament levels, while Joao Fonseca has been remarkably efficient, winning five of six finals, including capturing his maiden ATP title on his very first attempt in Buenos Aires earlier this year.