Reilly Opelka is essentially on a second life in Basel this week. Entering the tournament on a five-match losing streak, he nearly extended it to six after trailing 2-6 in the second-set tiebreak against Mika Brunold. From there, he staged a remarkable comeback, aided by some good fortune and his young opponent’s nerves. He then looked more composed in the final qualifying round, defeating Botic van de Zandschulp 6-4, 6-4 to secure his place in the main draw.
Despite possessing a massive serve that makes him a serious threat on indoor hard courts, the big-serving American has had limited success in these conditions outside the United States. In fact, he has reached only one semifinal in an indoor event abroad, which came at this very venue in Basel in 2019, the only time he has previously competed in this tournament.
Replicating similar success in this year’s Basel would see Opelka finish the year inside the top 50, a remarkable achievement considering he was unranked after returning from surgery midway through 2024 and started this year ranked closer to No. 300.
Sebastian Baez has struggled over the past six months, suffering several painful losses in tight matches. Despite that, he remains inside the top 50, largely thanks to his deep runs on clay earlier in the year, including a title in Rio de Janeiro and runner-up finishes in Santiago and Bucharest.
It is unlikely that Baez will be able to turn things around in the remainder of the season, especially as he is being asked to compete outside his comfort zone. In his career, he has won only three of 18 matches on indoor hard courts. On a positive note, one of those victories came here in Basel in 2023, when he defeated Christopher O’Connell in three sets.
Head-to-head: 0–0. Reilly Opelka’s fitness has been inconsistent this year, leading to fluctuating results and performances. Despite that, his superior ability, skill set, and experience on indoor hard courts make him the solid favorite heading into this clash.
